Intraday suggestions should be approached with a range-bound oscillation mindset, leaning towards bearish operations near key resistance levels, while closely monitoring geopolitical developments that could trigger breakouts.

The current market is in a tug-of-war between "macro positive stimuli" and "on-chain technical pressure." Although positive news has sparked a rebound, on-chain data shows that overall selling pressure has not been fully released, and the daily chart remains biased to the downside.

Below is a concise analysis based on the latest market conditions:

1. Key levels: dilemma between upward and downward

· Core range: BTC current price approximately $65,000 - $62,500 - $63,000.
· Pattern signals: The 4-hour timeframe is at the end of an "ascending wedge," a typical bearish continuation pattern. If volume does not break above the upper trendline, the rebound could end at any time.

2. Bull-bear logic: intense contest

· Reasons for bearish outlook (main theme):
· Structural resistance: Price is well below the 200-day moving average (~$70k), indicating the medium-term downtrend has not reversed; currently viewed as only a technical rebound.
· Insufficient volume: During the rebound, trading volume shrank, indicating a lack of follow-through buying, and the upward move lacks sustained momentum, posing a "trap" risk.
· Bullish variables (risk points):
· Macro surprises: Signals of a deal between the US and Iran suggest that if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, easing energy crises could boost risk assets and potentially push BTC through resistance zones.
· Leveraged positions unwinding: Open interest has significantly decreased, reducing market speculation pressure and creating a relatively healthy environment for subsequent upward moves.

3. Today's strategic suggestions

· Main strategy (bearish bias): Focus on the $65,000 - $65,500 zone. If the price reaches this area and upward momentum is weak, consider a light short position targeting around $63,500, with a stop-loss above $66k.
· Wait-and-see / bullish conditions: Only when the price volume stabilizes above $65,500 and the bearish logic is invalidated, can a light long position be considered; otherwise, if it breaks below $62,500, a new downward wave is likely to begin.
· Risk control reminder: Weekend liquidity is relatively low, and with the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, it is recommended to control position sizes. The current market is suitable for "short high, long low," and chasing high near $64,000 is not advised.

Summary: Until the price effectively breaks above $66k, maintain a rebound-then-short approach; but be alert to sudden positive news that could lead to missed opportunities, and strictly set stop-loss levels.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on search results and does not constitute direct investment advice. Please assess risks independently.