June 16-17 Federal Reserve + Bank of Japan decision on the same day, old veterans advise you not to rush and go all in** Brothers, today's top topic directly hits the pain point. US bond yields hit new highs again, and the global stagflation escalation is no longer news but a current reality. The Fed and the Bank of Japan surprisingly hold meetings on the same day, this move is too obvious—one continues to tighten liquidity, the other gradually exits negative interest rates, a double punch.

My personal view is one sentence: don’t prematurely adjust your positions significantly, and don’t foolishly go all in betting on a direction. Since the 2018 rate hike cycle, I’ve lived through it, and one thing is clear—central banks love to throw smoke screens before decisions, then look at the data after the decision to give you a heavy blow. The dollar is likely to remain strong, and global risk assets will be under pressure. Bitcoin over the years is no longer an “independent market,” in a high-interest-rate environment it still breathes along with Nasdaq.

What about the impact on the crypto market? Short-term is most likely a shakeout + volume reduction. Altcoins will continue to die the worst because the least liquid ones will die first. Leverage traders should lower their multiples these days, don’t wait until liquidation to regret it. HODLers can consider converting some into stablecoins or short-term bonds, preserving cash flow is much more important than betting on a direction. History doesn’t simply repeat, but the lessons have never changed: during macro tightening, the first to be harvested in the crypto space are retail traders’ leverage and emotions.