Evening of June 12

📊 Market Data

· Current price: 1,670 - 1,680. On June 12, the price rose over 4% in a single day, reaching as high as 1694
· Key levels: Above 1700 is a strong resistance; support levels to watch are 1,660 (short-term) and 1,505 (critical).
· Contract expiration: About $293 million in options expire today. The biggest pain point is at $1,750 (below the current price), which may pull the price.

📈 Long and short factor analysis

Bullish (rebound signals)

· Technical recovery: The "V-shaped" reversal that occurred early yesterday, breaking above the middle band of Bollinger, indicating weakening short-term downward momentum.
· Fundamentals: Pectra upgrade has been activated, L2 fees reduced to 2 cents, and long-term adoption is increasing.

Bearish (downside risk)

· Capital flow: ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive days (outflow of $16 million on June 11), institutional funds are retreating.
· Macro: The World Cup opening attracts speculative funds, combined with market risk aversion, leading to weak buying momentum.

💡 Trading suggestions

The overall trend remains bearish, with short-term rebounds mainly used for shorting:

· Short strategy (priority): Focus on the 1,685 - 1,715 range. If the price fails to break 1700 or shows signs of stagnation, consider light short positions targeting 1,600 - 1,660.

· Long strategy (cautiously): If the price retraces to 1,640 - 1,660 and stabilizes, try short-term rebounds, targeting 1,695 - 1710. Note that if it falls below 1,640, stop-loss is necessary.