Crypto Circle Academician: After the 6.12 Bitcoin crash, the market is repairing the move—don’t treat the rebound as a reversal and buy the dip! Latest market analysis and trading suggestions

Bitcoin’s current price is 63,400. After every round of large-scale liquidations, a long recovery period will follow. At most, this is only the shift from the early stage to the mid stage; the late stage is still ahead. In trading, always prioritize trading with the trend. If the daily chart hasn’t changed its move down on the daily line, then high-altitude (short) positions should be the main focus. For short-term trades, long positions should only capture small rebound profits—take profit when it’s looking good and exit. Many people lose huge amounts of money because they hold positions and don’t cut losses; they think if the price falls it will eventually rise back. When the market is in a bearish trend, being trapped deeply for several months is normal. Position management should always come first—don’t go all-in. Keep enough “back-up” to handle spike-like needle fluctuations, and be patient waiting for levels with higher certainty before taking action. A restless mindset is the biggest enemy in trading.

The daily K-line shows a modest single-day rebound of 3.14%. The low at 59,080 is the key support level for this round of selloff. The overall moving-average structure remains firmly in a downward pressure pattern: multiple EMA lines layer downwards, suppressing the price. 73,445 is the first major heavy resistance level in the mid term. Throughout the period, MACD remains in the downward green histogram zone, and the two lines have no turning-reversal signal. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, indicating the market is operating overall in a weak range near the lower band. Yesterday’s rebound was a technical repair after an oversold condition. Buying strength on the way up was weak and it failed to break through the short-term moving-average resistance. The big daily downtrend has not changed in any way. Rebound room is limited—every rise is an opportunity to get on a high-altitude short. For the “northbound” move to truly turn the tables, it must first stand firm above the 73,000 level.

On the 4-hour K-line, the recovery rebound started from the low of 59,080. Price has slightly moved above the 15-period short moving average, but all medium- and long-term moving averages are still above and forming resistance. Fibonacci resistance levels at 64,684 and 68,152 block upward movement step by step. MACD’s green histogram is clearly shrinking, and the two lines are about to stick together and form a golden cross, suggesting some continued momentum for a small rebound in the short term. The Bollinger Bands’ channels are narrowing, meaning volatility is decreasing; price is running weakly below the middle band. The 4-hour timeframe is only a rebound and stabilization during a downtrend—not a trend reversal. The rebound height is limited. Once the indicators complete their repair, downward forces will be released again. Never treat the rebound as a reversal and go heavy into chasing longs.

Short-term trading idea reference: follow the trend of the larger cycle; cut losses small and act fast—enter and exit quickly.

For longs (northbound) from 62,500 to 62,000: stop-loss at 61,500; targets at 63,500 to 64,500.

For shorts (southbound) from 64,500 to 65,000: stop-loss at 65,500; targets at 63,500 to 62,500.

Specific execution depends mainly on the live order-book data. For more information and details, you can refer to the author’s posts. Note: there may be a delay in publishing the article. This is for reference only; risk is your own responsibility.