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Copper advances, light recedes! For those who haven't studied the report that caused a huge stir at SemiAnalysis, you're falling behind.
The report titled "Powered Down, Lights Off. 800VDC Pushout and CPO Delays" centers on the series of impacts that at least until 2028 will prevent CPO from scaling up.
In a nutshell, the market is overly optimistic about 800VDC and CPO; current yield and integration issues are quite serious, causing NVIDIA's original push for large-scale adoption of 800VDC to be delayed until at least 2028-2029.
In the current Rubin architecture, 800VDC is not essential.
If CPO volume ramp-up is delayed until 2028, it benefits copper interconnects (AEC) and pluggable optical module suppliers.
The trend of optical advancing and copper receding has been reversed, and these two sectors will continue to outperform within two years.
Of course, strong stocks like $LITE related to CPO haven't been disproven; there's no need to panic excessively.
I personally remain optimistic about CPO's future.
However, my current positions are still concentrated in copper interconnects, pluggable optical modules, and other stocks that will definitely be further speculated on by the market in the short term.
Since the report was released, market consensus has clearly focused on these stocks.
$CRDO $ALAB