Gold falls below 4100: No more gains even in war?

War has arrived, and gold has collapsed.

You read that right.

The US-Iran conflict has escalated fully, Trump is bombing while shouting "Bombing will stop soon." Logically, in chaotic times, buy gold, right?

But what’s the result? Spot gold today directly broke through $4100, dropping as low as $4058, hitting a seven-month low. From nearly 4900 at the April high, it’s fallen over $800 in one go.

War not rising prices but falling? This script doesn’t add up.

It’s not that gold is malfunctioning; it’s that the safe-haven logic is outdated.

In the past, whenever the Middle East flared up, gold would soar. Why? Because war prints money, inflation rises, and the dollar falls.

But this time, it’s different.

Why isn’t the market afraid? Because Trump’s script is very clear: “Bombing will end soon.” Airstrikes are just a show; de-escalation is the goal. Everyone is betting that the conflict won’t spiral out of control, oil prices haven’t surged, and panic hasn’t spread.

Even more intense is that US CPI is as high as 4.2%, confirming high inflation. The Fed is watching this number and can only continue tightening.

A stronger dollar + rising real interest rates = a death sentence for gold.

“Gold doesn’t produce children, but US bonds generate interest. When real interest rates keep climbing, who still clings to that unproductive rock?”

“Before, ‘gunfire sounds, gold rises ten thousand’; now it’s ‘gunfire sounds, the dollar laughs.’”

So what’s the main reason suppressing gold prices?

It’s a strong dollar, rising real interest rates, and a tightening cycle. The expectation of conflict de-escalation is just a catalyst; the real killer is—holding cash earning 5% interest, isn’t that more appealing than betting on gold’s rise or fall?

Bitcoin players, don’t laugh. When gold falls, you think it’s good news for BTC? Naive.

The same logic is killing BTC:

Tightening → dollar strength → risk assets all collapse. BTC claims to be “digital gold,” but it’s falling even worse than gold.

Why? Because BTC doesn’t even have that “safe-haven inertia” gold has. Institutions see BTC as a high-volatility tech stock. When rate hike expectations come, the first to be dumped is you.

“Gold is the bottom line of safe assets, BTC is the top line of risk assets. If the bottom line breaks, can the top line survive?”

“Times have changed. Now, the Fed’s words #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX are more deadly than bombs.”