Is the ETH at $616 worth cutting losses?

First look at the surface: blood flows like a river, but the price hasn't collapsed.

In the past 24 hours, it dipped slightly by 0.7%, falling back from over 1700, but with a trading volume of 13 billion, indicating a volume contraction decline. The candlestick chart shows: 1610-1625 forms a strong demand zone, bulls are defending it fiercely. RSI and MACD are both weak but not extremely oversold, MACD bars are beginning to narrow—this is called “panic bottoming.”

First thing: the 9 billion USD unrealized loss is real, but who is losing?

Tom Lee-related positions have a floating loss of 9 billion dollars, many retail investors chased high above 1700 and got trapped.

Those with floating losses are the chasers who bought high. Meanwhile, smart money is quietly accumulating at 1610-1625.

The same position, ETH from 1500 to 4000 in 2024, also started by making everyone despair. What is “extreme fear”? It’s right now.

Second thing: ETH’s fundamentals are completely overshadowed by panic.

MetaMask just launched AI Agent Wallet, combining ETH self-custody + AI, which is the next narrative. EtherFi invested 100 million USD to build an RWA treasury, bringing real-world assets on-chain. ETH is the absolute king. Staking rate exceeds 30%, with 35.8 million ETH locked in, annualized yield of 2.75%—these people haven't run, so what are you panicking about?

Joseph Lubin’s related wallets are already supporting the market—founding team is buying, are you selling?

Third thing: a classic “life and death line” appears on the technical chart.

1610-1625 is a strong daily demand zone, tested three times without breaking below. Volume contraction + MACD bars narrowing—this is typical “diminishing downside momentum.”

Once a volume-increasing bullish candle stabilizes above 1625, the rebound target is directly at 1736-1812, +7%-11%. If it fails to hold, the support zones are 1544, 1480, and 1400.

Decide for yourself in this battle between bulls and bears.

One side says:

- 1610-1625 tested three times, bulls defending fiercely

- Staking rate over 30%, supply drying up

- AI wallets + RWA treasury + upgrade expectations

- Extreme low fear index, a sign of historical reversal

The other side says:

- ETF net outflows for 5 consecutive weeks totaling 2.4 billion

- Macro inflation exceeds expectations, rate cuts unlikely

- 1700-1800 becomes a strong resistance

- Sentiment extremely pessimistic, nobody dares to buy

Key level: 1616, just 21 dollars away from the life-and-death line at 1595.

Resistance above: 1717 → 1736 → 1812 (breakthrough confirms reversal)

Support below: 1610-1625 → 1544 → 1480

Short-term traders:

Buy small positions in batches at 1610-1625, stop-loss at 1595. Target 1736-1812, +7%-11%. Don’t hold heavy positions; this is a “panic rebound,” not a reversal.

Swing traders:

In the 1500-1650 range, add 10% each time it drops by 100 dollars, grid dollar-cost averaging. Target over 2400, hold for 1-3 months. Total position no more than 30%, leverage no more than 3x.

Long-term believers:

ETH below 1600 is like Bitcoin in 2020. Buy blindly, hold for a year, target 3000-4000+. Betting on upgrades in the second half of the year, rate cut cycles, and institutional inflows.

ETH now is like SOL in 2023—

Before rising from $8 to $200, everyone said “Solana will go to zero.”

Every bull market bottom is formed amid a storm of criticism. #我的Gate交易时刻 #Bitmine增持10万枚ETH $BTC $ETH $SOL