#CPI

CPI announced tonight: What truly determines the direction of the crypto market is not CPI, but U.S. Treasury yields

Tonight, the entire market is watching the U.S. CPI.

Many people think:

Good CPI = Crypto rises
Bad CPI = Crypto falls

But what really influences the market is:

After CPI is released, how will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield move?

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Why are yields more important than CPI?

Because yields represent the global funding cost standard.

Simply put:

Yield rises:

✔ The dollar becomes more attractive
✔ Risk assets come under pressure
✔ Stocks and cryptocurrencies are pressured

Yield falls:

✔ Funds start seeking higher-yield assets
✔ Risk appetite increases
✔ Crypto benefits

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Bullish scenario

If tonight:

✅ CPI is below expectations

Or

✅ Core CPI cools down

The market will think:

Inflation is cooling.

Then:

* U.S. Treasury yields decline
* The dollar index retreats
* Risk assets rise

The biggest beneficiaries could be:

BTC → ETH → SOL → ADA → HYPE

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Neutral scenario

If the data fully meets expectations:

The market is likely to continue oscillating.

Because current prices have already priced in most expectations.

In this case:

An upward trend is hard to sustain;

A decline also lacks sufficient reason.

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Bearish scenario

If:

❌ CPI significantly exceeds expectations

Especially if core CPI rises again

The market will reprice:

* Delay in rate cuts
* Prolonged high interest rates
* Liquidity tightening

At that point:

The 10-year Treasury yield might spike:

4.6% → 4.7% → 4.8%

Risk assets will face pressure.

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The signal I pay most attention to

Is not the CPI number itself.

But whether:

BTC and U.S. Treasury yields rise in tandem

If it happens:

* Yields rise
* BTC also rises

This is actually a super strong signal.

It indicates that institutions have started ignoring the impact of interest rates.

Funds are rushing to buy truly scarce digital assets.

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For spot players

In the short term:

CPI determines the volatility in the coming weeks.

In the long term:

The key factors for a bull market are still:

✔ Continuous accumulation of ETFs
✔ U.S. strategic reserve logic
✔ Wall Street capital inflows
✔ On-chain securitization and RWA development
✔ AI and digital finance integration

These core principles have not changed.

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My view

The market can never precisely bottom out.

But it can continuously deploy in undervalued areas.

Instead of guessing whether the next candle will go up or down,

Think about which assets will become the core holdings that institutions truly want to hold when the next bull market arrives.

Do you think after tonight’s CPI release:

Will BTC surge to new highs first, or will it complete one last shakeout?