The long-term bullish foundation remains unchanged, but the short- to medium-term “range-bound grind to the bottom” is far from over.

01. Long-term framework: inevitable under the collapse of US dollar credit

Our underlying logic has never changed: gold is the best asset to hedge against US dollar credit risk.

The hollowing out of US industry leads to a spiral increase in the size of US debt, and the long-term downward trend of US dollar credit is certain. As long as this major premise holds, gold’s strategic value as a “counterparty to the dollar” remains. Even if US Treasury yields rise in stages, when viewed over a longer cycle, it is strategically a favorable allocation window for gold.

02. Short- to medium-term dilemma: the “pinch” pressure of triple forces

If we are bullish in the long run, why are we seeing a range-bound phase right now? The core lies in: “the old momentum has run out, and new momentum has not yet been born.”

The “rate-cut expectations” and the “central bank gold-buying narrative” that previously supported gold have already been dulled, while the new macro trend—“stagflation”—has not yet been formally established. In this gap period, gold faces three powerful suppressive forces:

① The “grand strategy” of petrodollars: a surge in crude oil that resolves debt

This is the most core implicit logic at present.

To repay massive debt and maintain US dollar credit, the United States has an incentive to push up oil prices. Under the petrodollar system, when oil prices rise, more US dollars are needed for settlement, forcing central banks around the world to sell gold reserves to obtain dollars.

The result is: gold falls, the US Dollar Index stabilizes, oil prices rise, and debt pressure eases. This is a debt-resolution method that appears to be “by the book,” but it is actually a very real bloodletting for gold.

② AI’s “siphoning effect”: the tech bubble competing for capital

Last year, institutions’ “barbell strategy” (one end AI, the other gold) has tilted this year.

The AI industry is booming, and market expectations for tech stocks are extremely high. Funds rush into AI, and gold naturally receives the cold shoulder. AI and gold have a delicate “see-saw” relationship—reference the start of gold after the internet bubble burst in 2000. Only by waiting for the AI bubble to break will the overflow of capital return to embrace gold again.

③ A technical “time-for-space” approach

From the weekly MACD, although the fast and slow lines are approaching the zero axis, time is still needed for repair. We believe that for gold at this level, “trading sideways for half a year or a year” is reasonable.

Current volatility (about 23) still needs to further converge. Only when the market reaches consensus and a new major macro trend emerges can gold break the deadlock.

03. Key projection: a second wave of crude oil impact

We expect that late June to July is the critical time window.

As excess crude oil reserves are depleted, oil prices are very likely to begin a second wave of upside. This will once again suppress gold through the path of “inflation—US Treasury yields—real interest rates.” Only after oil prices remain at a high level of 100 dollars per barrel for the long term, fully triggering economic “stagflation,” will gold’s next round of major narrative truly begin.

05. Final note: patience is the best strategy

Gold is currently in a stage of “strategic optimism, tactical caution.”

Turning-point signals: either geopolitical conflicts intensify, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices followed by “the law of extremes reversing”; or the AI bubble bursts and capital returns; or, with oil prices at high levels, “stagflation confirmation” becomes fixed.

Trading guidance: until you see a clear major macro trend (stagflation or AI breaking down), stay patient and wait for volatility to decline further.
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