June 9

View remains unchanged: continue to observe, small-scale regular investment, do not hold heavy positions.

(1) Oil prices rise, expectations of rate cuts are suppressed

Affected by the Israel conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to return to normal navigation, and market expectations for the recovery time are continuously delayed.

Disrupted navigation will increase energy costs. If oil prices stay high for a long time, inflation will be difficult to quickly decrease.

The logic is simple:

High oil prices → Difficult to reduce inflation → Lower probability of rate cuts → Risk assets under pressure.

Without expectations of rate cuts, the market will find it hard to sustain a large trend.

(2) Risk of Bank of Japan rate hike

According to Nikkei News, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 1% at the June meeting.

This is something to pay close attention to.

Last August, Japan’s rate hike caused significant volatility in global risk assets. If the yen continues to strengthen this time, it may again lead to forced liquidation of arbitrage trades, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin, Nasdaq, and other risk assets.

(3) Trading strategy

Next, focus on three signals:

The results of the Bank of Japan meeting on June 16, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Bitcoin ETF funds turn positive.

Opportunities are created by waiting, not guessing.

The bottom range can be invested in small positions regularly, but avoid heavy bets on the bottom. Wait for confirmation signals before considering increasing positions. #btc$btc #eth #btc