Can I buy $50 worth of SOL for long-term holding, and is it okay to stake after purchasing?

I just finished chatting with a group friend, and he asked about SOL! We don't create problems; we solve problems. Let's see how much we can resolve.

Buy SOL at 50, stake it for one to two years, then sell. If after one to two years it's below 50, then it's game over.

1: The core of staking is to hold it securely; secondly, it's for profit. I know him better—someone with an unstable holding mentality.

2: If after two years it's still below 50, then it's game over—he's worried that the price might drop below 50 later and cause losses.

OK, now let's analyze how to play this.

First, we need to research and judge the macro outlook for the next one to two years!

Let's not talk about macro policies; that might seem pretentious. No one in the market really likes to discuss macro.

Let's talk about the Federal Reserve. What will its policy be in the next one to two years? Will it cut interest rates? We focus on this because it governs not just the crypto world but is the anchor point for global markets.

The era of independent bullish runs in the crypto market is over. Don't expect things to be like a few years ago. Give up the illusions and face reality.

Conditions to meet for him to execute this strategy: what do we need to do beforehand?

1: When SOL drops to 50, judge whether the future will see a complete shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, a turn in inflation downward, and the Fed's policy turning to start a rate cut cycle!

No need to dig deep into Fed policies, nor to overthink daily. You can't predict it, and institutional banks can't predict it either.

Just watch market news. As long as the market prices in a consensus expectation that the Fed will start a rate cut cycle in the next year or some period, that signals a long-term opportunity. We don't need the mainstream institutions' predictions; we need their consensus.

For example, currently: not only is there no consensus expectation of rate cuts, but there's even a strong expectation of rate hikes. That’s when you should know what to do.

2: Which staking channel? (I'm not very familiar with staking) On-chain staking or CEX staking? Find the better fit.

3: Full position staking or half position? Should you reserve some active funds for risk hedging, such as if the fundamentals of the SOL chain deteriorate, face competition among public chains, ecosystem loss, decline in daily active users, etc.

4: Always use funds that you won't need during the staking period (e.g., two years). The only certainty in the market is uncertainty. The funds involved in this strategy should not affect your normal life.

Finally, put the risk upfront. Before executing this strategy, you should have an expectation of potential losses. Don’t panic or get anxious if losses occur. How much loss can you accept? $10, $20, or $30? Tell yourself this in advance.