1. The rebound nature is "weak correction": the current price increase is mainly triggered by technical rebounds after indicators like RSI drop into extremely oversold zones (such as 12.57), known as the "rubber band effect," rather than trend reversal. The candlestick bodies on the 4-hour chart are relatively short and weaken after touching the midline.

2. The medium-term trend remains under pressure: some analyses believe that the overall structure is still in an adjustment cycle after reaching a high point, and may even be in the middle of a downward five-wave correction. Unless the price can stabilize above $1,700 again, each rebound may face selling pressure.
3. Volatility indicates a trend change: the Bollinger Band Width (BBWP) indicator shows that volatility has fallen to a low level, which historically often signals imminent sharp price fluctuations (trend change), so caution is needed for a potential double bottom.

📝 Trading suggestions (intraday/short-term)

· Conservative strategy (mainly watch): observe more and act less, wait for the price to effectively break above $1,650 to confirm rebound strength, or break below $1,550 to validate the continuation of the downtrend. For medium to long-term positioning, keep position size between 10%-20%.
· Aggressive strategy (mainly shorting): if the rebound reaches the $1,600-$1,650 zone and shows signs of stagnation, try a small short position, targeting around $1,510; pay attention to the support effectiveness in the $1,500-$1,550 range below.
· Spot positioning: since the price is near a 13-month low, if it revisits the $1,450-$1,500 zone and does not break below, it can be considered as a good area for lump-sum investment or phased building positions. #比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚