"New Stock God" Serenity discusses personal investment frameworks: guessing the market's unknowns and piecing together high-conviction inferences from fragments

BlockBeats News, June 7 — “New Stock God” Serenity responded to how beginners should learn investing, and systematically outlined his investment framework. Serenity admitted that his personal style is a bit different: fundamentally, it is based on making independent judgments from information that the market has not yet mastered, layered with accumulated life experience. “A lot of things are just guessing those unstructured relationships, and then waiting to see whether you’re right. This kind of ability is hard to teach through courses; it’s more about accumulating life skills, and then applying them to the market.”

Serenity reviewed this approach with two classic cases. The first is Raspberry Pi (a Raspberry Pi microcomputer): the market generally believes RPI is an educational toy, but he noticed that after the rise of OpenClaw (an open-source AI agent framework), many friends around him bought Raspberry Pis and Mac Minis to deploy AI applications, and AI orchestration video tutorials flooded online. Based on this, he judged that AI would become an ideal growth engine for RPI—his private model and prediction put the revenue growth rate at about 55%, and in the end the financial report came out at 58%, far exceeding the market expectation of 14%. “At the time, the media all said it was a meme stock, because you couldn’t see the revenue growth brought by AI through public channels.”

The second is AXT: when he bought it for about $12, it was mocked by the crowd. Large language model hallucinations even claimed that massive-scale cloud companies and governments should have discovered and fixed the indium phosphide (InP) substrate vulnerability long ago, while analysts used steady-state TAM estimates to conclude that AXT was overvalued. “But AXT controls about 40% of the InP supply chain. Without it, the whole chain would break. What you have to guess is—if it becomes a bottleneck like NAND, what kind of market value could it reach based on its control, and at what price would buyers view it?” Goldman Sachs’s current research conclusions and the financial reports of substrate epitaxy wafer companies were only confirmed after he published his AXT analysis.

Serenity also admits that not all investments need to be that complicated. “Many stocks are enough with standard methods.” For example, if AAOI’s annualized revenue guidance for the first half of 2027 reaches $471 million, while its current market cap is only $12 billion, it may be undervalued. Samsung Electronics is even simpler—by modeling the market’s 2027 and 2028 operating profit, you can judge whether the current valuation is reasonable. For JBL (Jabil), which is harder to value, its 1.6T LRO (Linear Receivers Optical) still has no clear sales data—“you can only guess how widely used it is, and then extrapolate its impact on the current market cap.” Serenity concludes that what he does is essentially piecing together unrelated fragments to form high-conviction inferences—“of course, it can always be wrong at any time.”