Recently, I've been messing around with address profiling again—labels, clustering, fund flows—basically just sticking "who does this look like" sticky notes on a bunch of addresses. I'm just someone who calculates transaction fees, and the more I look, the more I think this stuff can be useful, but don’t trust it too much: if the clustering rules change (multi-signature, aggregators, cross-chain bridges, hot wallets on exchanges), yesterday’s “smart money” could become today’s “friendly fire.” On-chain fund flows look very smooth, but in reality, it’s all washing machines in the middle.

By the way, looking at Layer 2’s arguments about TPS, fees, and subsidies, many “ecosystem prosperity” on-chain is just subsidizing addresses to move back and forth, and labeling them makes it seem like real demand. Anyway, my habit is: labels are just hints; before drawing real conclusions, first check if the fee structure and incentives are self-consistent, otherwise it’s just noise mistaken for signals. That’s all for now.