On my commute, I skimmed through screenshots of on-chain “tags/clusters/smart money.” Honestly, I’m a little half-believing and half-doubting. Address profiling can be like a telescope to help you see the direction—but don’t treat it like an ID card: when one person uses multiple wallets, exchange custody is mixed in, and even team funds get split and moved around, it can all be spun into one story… it’s just too easy.

Recently, I’ve also seen everyone link ETF fund flows and US stock risk appetite with crypto price rises and falls for interpretation. I do look at that too, but mostly as a reminder to myself: don’t let grand narratives lead you. My approach is still the same as usual—low-frequency rebalancing. When I see “fund inflow/outflow,” I ask first: whose money is this, where did it come from, and is it just moving to a different pocket. Anyway, sleep comes first—don’t treat charts as destiny.