$BTC The price has effectively fallen below the prior range and swept through the 60k support level (February lows). The apparent consolidation range around 63k failed to hold, leading to further downside.

Contract CVD has deteriorated significantly compared with the earlier period and continues to trend downward;
Spot CVD has also entered an extreme negative range and is currently moving sideways.

In this round of decline, no key support formed effective defense. The cumulative drop has exceeded 30%, accompanied by around $2 billion in long liquidations.

Market sentiment has shifted to extreme bearishness. Although the short trend is clearly evident, chasing shorts at this moment is not the optimal choice.

A divergence has formed between contract and spot fund flows—like a compressed spring. Extreme readings often signal the accumulation of reversal momentum.

Even though sellers currently hold absolute dominance, this imbalance is difficult to sustain long-term. We expect a relatively strong de-compression relief rebound in the short term, squeezing out short positions opened near recent high levels.

If the price can successfully recover and hold above 62k, a rebound could follow, with targets pointing to the 68.2k area.
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