When it comes to options, put simply: the time value is “being charged” every day. The buyer is essentially working for time—if you do nothing, it gets slowly eaten away. The seller is collecting rent, but don’t act like you’re invincible: when a big needle (volatility) shows up, it can force you to spit out your rent plus interest, and that’s not even all. Recently, a bunch of people have been using RWA and US Treasury yield rates to benchmark on-chain yield products. My feeling is that everyone is searching for “seemingly stable” interest; but the “stability” of option sellers is often just that you haven’t noticed the tail risk.

The signal I truly care about isn’t complicated, either: when you realize that before placing an order you only care about the direction, not about “how long it will take to be right,” that’s probably the time value getting ready to take advantage of you. Anyway, I’d rather do a little less now than rely on luck and go head-to-head with time.