These days, I see people using "stablecoin supply increasing / ETF net inflows" to predict the next market move. To be clear, correlation is not causation, and that doesn't guarantee stability. When stablecoins increase, it could mean traders are preparing to enter the market, or it could just be moving assets, doing risk control, or even waiting to withdraw funds; the same applies to ETF inflows—off-chain funds coming in don't necessarily mean immediate spot purchases, sometimes it's just about taking a position and gradually rotating. Recently, some regions have fluctuated between tightening and loosening tax and compliance policies, causing expectations for deposits and withdrawals to shift. As a result, people's tendency to "wait and see by holding stablecoins first" has become more obvious. Anyway, when I look at on-chain and exchange inflows and outflows now, I pay more attention to the rhythm and sources. Don't be misled by a single indicator—stay steady and don't get caught up in the hype.

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