6.5 Core Market Analysis

1️⃣ Market Fundamentals: Institutions continue to reduce positions, geopolitical conflicts are a bearish factor, foreign capital continues to flow out, and market funds keep being withdrawn—making a strong rebound unlikely. In the short term, expect low-level, wide-range consolidation.

2️⃣ Technical Patterns: On the daily chart, yesterday had a long upper wick, leaving the risk of a pullback with a continuation to a bearish candle; on the weekly chart, a head-and-shoulders top is forming. Once support breaks, it would become a downside continuation, with further room for a deep decline. In past bear markets, BTC’s drop is often 76%~85%. In this cycle, from the high point the maximum has only been halved, so the downside has not fully played out yet. Currently, it is not suitable for long-term spot positioning or phased dollar-cost averaging.

3️⃣ BTC Short-Term Trading: A second test in the 60,500–61,000 range can be used for a short-term long. If the price rebounds to 65,000–66,000, consider reversing and going short again. After the box-range consolidation, a breakdown to the downside is highly likely.