I used to be very stubborn, always saying "I only look at on-chain data," thinking that data wouldn't lie.

As a result, the blockchain game pools are the best teachers: once the gates open, inflation is like rain, first the APR looks attractive, then everyone queues up to throw coins back into the pool to exchange for real money, TVL still stays, but people have already dispersed...
To put it simply, you think it's "profit," but actually it's "others paying your salary," and the source of that salary is still the newcomer next door.

Recently, I saw a bunch of people comparing RWA, US bond yields to on-chain yield products, and I also get tempted, but blockchain games are more like self-circulating hype machines, relying on coin minting to keep up appearances without external cash flow.
When the hype cycle hits a turning point, the pool starts leaking like a faucet.
Now I’ll correct myself: I watch on-chain, but I also need to watch the sentiment; otherwise, every time I think I’m bottom-fishing, I’m actually taking the last hit...
Forget it, those who are quick should first learn to be slow.