These days I’ve been watching the whole thing about interest rates again, and it feels like a master switch: when rates are high, everyone is more willing to put their money into something “safe,” and on-chain activity clearly gets colder; when rates ease up, risk appetite comes back, and positions only then dare to inch forward. But transmission isn’t a straight line—often it’s emotions first, then capital moves, and only last comes the narrative playing catch-up.

So am I bullish or bearish right now?
To be honest, I don’t know.

What I care about more is how itchy my hands are: the less clear the macro picture is, the easier it is to chase after every small fluctuation, only to be “educated” by trading fees and slippage… Lately, these new L1/L2s have started rolling out incentives to boost TVL again. And I can really empathize with the old users complaining about “mine, withdraw, and sell”—it’s lively, but when it comes to my positions, I’ll still move slowly for now, keep some ammunition, and watch the show.