These days, I've seen many people link stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and market trends as if they are all connected, basically saying "money is coming in, so the market has to go up." I used to believe this too, thinking that more stablecoins meant off-chain funds entering the market. But I later realized that sometimes it's just a shell being transferred on-chain, or exchanges moving funds between hot and cold wallets, and it looks like "smart money" is rushing in… but it might just be a move of assets.

The same goes for ETFs; inflows and outflows are of course worth referencing, but don’t treat correlation as causation. When emotions run high, it’s easy to imagine stories that aren’t there. Now, with small positions for practice, I tend to be cautious: when I see large transfers, I pause for two minutes to think, "Is this a buy or just accumulation?" If I can't figure it out, I just leave it be and learn slowly, so I don’t scare myself.