Recently, I’ve seen people equate “stablecoin supply is going up” directly with “we’re about to enter the market and get a pump,” and then add a line like “ETF funds are queuing up outside,” and they start to imagine a causal chain. Plainly put, the sources of the extra stablecoins are too varied: exchange inventory, market-making turnover, on-chain lending rolling back and forth, or even just swapping shells and moving things around—none of it is the same as real, hard-money buy pressure. The same goes for ETFs: subscription and redemption follow a schedule, and off-exchange funds are sometimes just watching and won’t automatically flow into the particular chain you’re fixated on. Lately, testnet incentives and point expectations are heating up again, and everyone is guessing whether the mainnet will issue tokens… I’ll keep an eye on it too, but I care more about whether this “yield” is actually being subsidized through burning, or whether risk is just piling up. Forget it—let’s not talk about sentiment for now. Just don’t get blinded by correlations.