#BTC触底66000

Every Bitcoin Bottom Since 2012 Reached This Zone: We Haven't Gotten There Yet

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
is trading around US$67,002, and on-chain data from Glassnode shows that long-term holder groups are signaling further declines before this bear market records its cycle low.

Three charts from Glassnode show the same trend. Holders who have kept coins for more than 155 days appear to be under pressure, but they have not yet reached the pain levels that historically mark Bitcoin cycle bottoms in the past.

Long-Term Holder NUPL Enters Historical Bottom Zone

Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) of Long-Term Bitcoin Holders (LTH NUPL) is around 0.25 (red circle). This figure indicates the upper boundary of the orange band that has framed every previous cycle bottom.

Historically, whenever this zone is touched, it always coincides with the lowest BTC price in the cycle (blue zone). Bottoms in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2022 were all formed within the orange band.

On the other hand, this signal has not yet shifted into accumulation. NUPL needs to fall further into the orange or red band, similar to previous cycle bottoms.

Long-Term Holder Supply Hits All-Time High

Although NUPL indicates potential short-term pressure, the supply held by long-term holders has quietly hit a new record high. Currently, this group controls about 15 million BTC, the highest number to date.

This pattern always repeats in every cycle. During the mid-phase of Bitcoin's bear market, long-term holders absorb coins from short-term sellers.

They then distribute this supply into the next bull trend, usually months or even years later. The current accumulation pattern suggests that this group sees value at the current price level, even though prices may still correct further.

Nevertheless, such patterns actually confirm that the market is still in the bear phase. Long-term holders rarely sell during weak conditions. The current selling pressure comes from younger and less confident groups.

BTC Price Could Test US$56,000 Before Actual Capitulation

The third chart from Glassnode discusses the magnitude of pressure. Relative Unrealized Loss of LTH Bitcoin is at 15.5%. This means about 15 cents of every dollar in long-term holder portfolios is still at a loss.

At the cycle bottoms of 2019 and 2022, this metric rose above 50%. Therefore, the gap between the current level and those historical lows indicates that the bear market is still ongoing. Glassnode wrote on X:

“At US$69,500, Relative Unrealized Loss of LTH is at 15.5%. For every dollar held by long-term holders today, they are experiencing about 15 cents of unrealized loss. At cycle extremes, this number has exceeded 50 cents per dollar. There is pressure, but the long-term holder base is still far from the pain levels that historically mark cycle bottoms.”

A drop to the US$56,000 zone would bring the relative unrealized loss close to 30 to 40%. This area becomes a critical long-term support cluster and places on-chain pressure comparable to the early capitulation phase in previous cycles.

Deeper correction to around US$44,000 is still possible if NUPL drops into the red zone. Meanwhile, if BTC manages to return to US$105,000, this bearish scenario could be invalidated as long-term holders regain significant profits. Such a move would resemble rare signals seen during past cycle reversals.

BTC itself has corrected 11.6% over the past week and weakened 36.3% over the past year. Looking at long-term holder data, the current trend leans more toward downward movement before eventually turning upward.