Recently, I've seen people watching large on-chain transfers and fluctuations in exchange hot and cold wallets, interpreting it as "smart money coming in / about to run." To be honest, I'm more concerned about the small accounts in the chain game pools: whether the output (token issuance / drops) has been consistently spiking, and whether the consumption (synthesis, repairs, tickets) is keeping up. Once inflation kicks in, the pool may look lively, but it's actually just using new funds to cover old investors' gains; both prices and sentiment become very fragile. Anyway, when I look at chain games now, I break it down into two parts: how much is net added daily, and how much is truly burned; if the main reliance is on "new players taking over output," then no matter how wallets fluctuate, it's just a different way of telling the story.