#Gate携手Alpaca链接数字资产与股票金融交易 Brothers, today’s market, first clarify the blame.

Don’t pull MSTR out to parade every time it dips.
Saylor sold 32 BTC, which is indeed annoying.
But if you say this continuous single-sided move is caused by those 32 coins crashing out, that’s a bit unfair to the old man.
Can 32 BTC cause such a trend?
Then the market is too fragile.
The real driver pushing Bitcoin higher is the ETF that’s been bleeding out.
How did it rise earlier?
Continuous net inflows into ETFs pushed BTC from below all the way up past 82k in a month. At that time, everyone thought institutions were here, the trend was coming, even pigs could fly for a while.
Why did it fall now?
The opposite.
Continuous net outflows from ETFs for half a month, and BTC has been pressed down all the way. Now, BTC ETF outflows have exceeded $1.5 billion, and ETH ETFs are also flowing out about $500 million. Big funds aren’t supporting the market anymore, retail traders are shouting “rebound quickly,” but does it help?
No, it doesn’t.
You shout until your throat is sore, but if ETFs don’t turn around, the market will pretend not to hear you.
So the core of this wave isn’t MSTR, it’s ETFs.
MSTR is just adding salt to the wound.
ETFs are the ones bleeding out continuously.
And speaking of the bloodsucking in the US stock market.
Recently, many people say money is flowing into US stocks, but that’s only half true.
It’s not the entire US stock market grabbing money from crypto, but those few sectors within US stocks that can tell stories and push for a rally.
AI, storage, Nvidia, Micron, SanDisk—these areas have volatility, narratives, and freshness. Plus, exchanges are starting to list real US stocks and US stock-mapped tokens, making it easier for crypto users to play the US stock game.
This is quite awkward.
In the past, everyone watched the “dog coins” take off in the crypto world.
Now, some are watching Nvidia open champagne next door.
Meanwhile, your BTC is still leaking oil, so why would they come back to hand you a tissue?
The bigger change is actually in the trading arena.
It’s not just US stocks attracting crypto money; traditional exchanges like CME and Cboe are also being impacted. Cboe’s weekly drop was severe, and CME also hit near a 52-week low. This shows it’s not just one market’s problem, but the entire “trading flow” is being redistributed.
Who has new ways to play, who gets the traffic.
Who only has old scripts, who will sit on the sidelines.
This is the most real market right now.
Adding an external variable: oil prices and US-Iran tensions.
WTI has returned to around 95, and as the conflict line tightens, risk assets will feel uncomfortable. High oil prices increase inflation pressures; unstable situations make spot funds more cautious.
In this environment, do you expect big funds to rush in to buy the dip in BTC?
They’re not here to be charity in crypto.
So, this decline can be broken down into five points:
ETF outflows are the main cause.
MSTR is just a side effect.
Strong US stock sectors are attracting flow.
Traditional exchanges are also being impacted by new trading models.
Oil prices and US-Iran tensions make risk appetite more timid.
When these five factors stack up, BTC will be hard to hold steady.
Can we look at 65K here?
We can, but don’t rush to stamp it as the bottom.
I don’t want to say “65K is the bottom” now. That’s too cheap, anyone can say it.
What really matters is:
Is there anyone willing to buy here?
Can it hold steady?
Is there strength in the rebound?
Are ETF outflows slowing down?
If BTC can stabilize around 65K and ETF outflows don’t continue wildly, this could be a deep washout.
If ETF is still bleeding out and 65K is just a temporary pause, then further support levels need to be found.
Don’t be fooled by “it’s fallen too much, it should rebound.”
There’s no “should” in the market.
The market only cares about “whether money is coming in or not.”
That’s all for today.