These days, the group is again sharing screenshots like "a certain stablecoin is de-pegging" or "reserve audits have issues," and once emotions run high, it's easy to connect stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and off-chain funds into a causal chain.

To put it simply, correlation ≠ causation: an increase in supply could be due to minting for reserves, or it could just be switching channels; more ETF inflows are because of regulatory openings, but that doesn't mean immediate buying on the chain.
After doing AMM for a long time, I know that many "things that look similar" are actually just driven by a larger environment at the same time.
Anyway, my approach is: first look at the redemption/minting rhythm and on-chain inflows and outflows, then observe depth and slippage changes—don't be misled by a few charts.
The risks are always there; taking it slow makes it more steady.