Today I was organizing my desktop and found a sticky note that said, “Don’t rush to follow the trades.” Lately, watching whale moves, it’s the same story: a big transfer from a wallet doesn’t necessarily mean “they’re trying to pump the market.” It could be building a position, or it could simply be hedging the other side’s position. In plain terms, they’re covering their risk—if you rush in and follow, you might end up being the one left holding the bag.

Also, people are complaining that on-chain data tools and the tag/label systems are lagging and can even be used to mislead others, so don’t put too much faith in “so-called smart money.” My habit is: first, check whether this address has been moving coins back and forth and whether there are signs of opening positions on multiple platforms at the same time; then see whether it lines up with the timing/pace of derivatives positions. If it doesn’t match, I treat it as noise. Better to miss out than be pulled along by a single label.