Recently, I’ve been looking at those “pools” in blockchain games—honestly, it comes down to just two things: the output ramps up too aggressively + there’s only selling pressure with no real demand. It looks lively at first, with rewards being layered on one after another, but inflation turns the coins into “paper.” Later, when new players thin out, old players are left with only “withdraw and dump”—no matter how thick the pool is, it can’t hold up. Drag it out long enough and it turns into a death spiral.

On the macro side, people are still arguing about whether rate-cut expectations, the US dollar index, and risk assets are supposed to move together up or together down. My take is that these blockchain games are more like emotion-driven products with built-in leverage: once the market even twitches, external liquidity tightens, and they run faster than anyone else.

There are plenty of tutorials, but I personally just care about things like: where does the output come from, whether the recycling mechanism is reliable, and how fast the team issues patches. If I were really going to participate, I’d watch for two weeks first: new user growth, withdrawal speed, and whether the reward rules are quietly changed. If I can’t make sense of it, I’ll just pretend I didn’t see it—I’d rather miss out.