Recently, someone was talking again about whether stablecoins will lose their peg.

I used to be quite stubborn, always saying "I only look at on-chain data," focusing on minting/redeeming, pool depth, and exchange inflows.
Later I realized that’s not enough; depegging often isn’t caused by data going bad first, but by people panicking first: even just one missing explanation about reserve transparency can trigger a collective run button.
To put it simply, transparency isn’t to prove you’re fine, but to give everyone a reason to hold back when they most want to run.

Recently, there’s also talk about rate cut expectations and the US dollar index, with risk assets strangely moving up and down together…
When macro sentiment gets overheated, stablecoins are easily treated as a “temporary safe haven” and moved around, increasingly testing their resilience under pressure.
Now I force myself not to only focus on on-chain data: on-chain is like a health report, but sentiment is the heartbeat.
Missing either can easily lead to misjudgment.
If I’m wrong, feel free to criticize me.