I’m increasingly not buying the “coincidental transfer” explanation—how many real coincidences are there on-chain… Today I looked through a few payments that looked random at first glance; once you split them up, it’s just a pretty standard route: first use a new account to take in the funds, then toss them into a relay pool to mix for a bit, and finally let them trickle out slowly through commonly used entry/exit points. To put it plainly, it’s about separating the source and the destination so you can’t be bothered to trace it.

After that cross-chain bridge incident a while back, everyone has been even more into shouting “wait for confirmation.” The oracle’s abnormal quote incident was the same—on-chain, a whole bunch of people just play dead and wait for someone else to call it first. Anyway, my current habit is: every time I see “it’s just a coincidence,” I need to be reminded to map out the path first before I start ranting, otherwise I’ll end up repeating the same old “disaster breakdown” stories that have already been beaten to death in the past.