Lately, I’ve been worn out by all the talk about interest rates… To put it simply, it doesn’t directly determine what I buy or sell, but it drains the “nerve to stomach volatility.” When rates are high and risk appetite pulls back, I’ve gotten into the habit of lightening my positions—I’d rather make a little less than use my sleep as fuel. Then, once market sentiment slowly warms up again, I’ll think about loading the gun. The upside of low-frequency analysis is that I don’t have to justify myself every single candlestick.

Even the on-chain data tools and tagging systems have recently been getting criticized for lagging behind—or even being able to mislead people—and I actually think that’s pretty normal. No matter how good the tags look, they’re just other people’s annotations, not facts themselves. These days, I’m more used to looking at “behavior” instead of “identity,” such as whether funds are entering and exiting in a continuous batch cycle, or whether there’s deliberate detouring. In any case, in the long run, this isn’t a matter of talent—it’s a matter of habits: stay alive first, and then decide whether to chase after you wake up.