Recently, someone used the supply of stablecoins as a basis to force-fit ETF inflows and outflows, as well as off-chain capital flows. It feels quite similar… or maybe… Anyway, don’t mistake correlation for causation. On-chain things are often “mint first, use later” or “hold and wait for opportunities.” Seeing supply increase doesn’t mean the market is about to enter; ETF settlement cycles are a different story altogether, sometimes just a way to channel previous demand.

Moreover, bridges have been hacked again, and oracles have issued abnormal quotes. People often say “wait for confirmation,” and it’s normal for funds to pause on-chain before moving again. To put it simply, analyzing data is fine, but don’t jump to stories just because two lines move simultaneously. I’m also impatient and tempted to rush in, but in the end, I have to force myself to wait two more blocks before drawing conclusions.