Recently looking at options positions, it’s a bit like watching a game of “who gets slowly taken away by time.” Buyers are betting on probabilities, it’s satisfying, but the time value is bleeding daily, and even if the market doesn’t move, you’re still losing; sellers seem to be collecting rent, benefiting from this time, but once big volatility hits, their losses can add up quickly—don’t think it’s a guaranteed win.

These days, funding rates are extreme again, and in the group chat, people are arguing whether to reverse or keep squeezing the bubble. What I care more about is: at times like this, everyone’s emotions are high, buyers tend to chase high and buy expensive, while sellers often underestimate tail risks. To put it simply, time doesn’t favor anyone; it only targets those with “mispriced” assets. Be cautious first, don’t mistake luck for a strategy.