Before, I used to wonder whether a project was “actually getting things done,” and I was always fixated on the roadmap and official social media updates. Later, I realized that the most honest signal is what the treasury actually spends money on—whether it has milestones to show for it after the funds are used up. Money keeps being poured into “ecosystem incentives,” but the on-chain usage hasn’t picked up, so I tend to be a bit wary. Conversely, when the spending pace is slower, and they deliver first and only then expand the budget, that actually looks more like they’re working seriously.

Recently, the group has been circulating rumors about stablecoin regulation, reserve audits, and all kinds of talk about “depegging.” Once everyone’s emotions start running hot, it’s easy for people to rush in chaotically. My habit now is to look first: what assets are held in the project’s treasury, whether they’re stable, whether there’s a risk of centralized custody, whether big holders have suddenly withdrawn collateral… In plain terms, first figure out whether the project can make it through this wave, and only then talk about the vision. That’s how I do it for now.