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Long humiliation, short hubris — these eight words are enough for me to ponder all year.
Written by: Tide Research
Bank of America's latest issue of Flow Show, with a title that bites: Post-bubble.
Analyst Hartnett doesn't use questions, nor does he add words like "possible" or "perhaps" as buffers. In his view, the current U.S. stock market is not "suspected of being a bubble," but has already entered the script of a bubble burst. He flips through history from 1929 to 2015, uncovering the asset performance patterns after each major bubble peak, then draws a roadmap for today's market.
The core trading strategy of this chart can be summarized in one sentence: go long on "humiliated" assets, go short on "arrogant" ones (long humiliation, short hubris).
A set of unsettling data
Let's first look at the current "abnormality."
The S&P 500 index is at a historic high