Polymarket loses 32 BTC

Strategy (Michael Saylor's company) never sells coins, so "Will they sell BTC?" has become a $20 million market on Polymarket.

As a result, they sold 32 coins—which, compared to their over 200,000 BTC holdings, is like losing five dollars in their wallet.

But Polymarket's rule is: "If Strategy sells any of their Bitcoin before the specified time, it is considered 'Yes.'"

The question is: Strategy sold before May 31, but the announcement was made afterward.

The "Yes" side argues: The rule states "sale time," regardless of the announcement.

The "No" side argues: The announcement was after the deadline and should not be trusted.

In this $20 million market, the debate is whether "announcement time" counts.

Even more ironic is Polymarket's response:

"If a clarification statement needs to be issued, it will be published at 1 p.m. Eastern Time on June 1. If no statement is issued by then, it indicates that the Polymarket team will not make any clarification."

Translation: "We also don't know how to judge, so we'll think about it some more."

A prediction market's core selling point is "code is law, rules are rulings."

Now that the rules are ambiguous, the Polymarket team wants to "clarify"—

Who decides? How do they decide? What are the standards?

If the "clarification" benefits one side, will the other side say "Polymarket is manipulating the market"?

32 BTC has exposed the biggest weakness of prediction markets:

Code is dead, but the interpreters of rules are alive.

And living people make mistakes. #Gate正式推出股票交易 $POLYMARKET