Recently, I've seen a bunch of people watching large on-chain transfers and exchange hot and cold wallets, shouting "smart money is coming" whenever there's movement... What I actually want to do more now is trace the path: where does this money come from (is it a return flow from old addresses or new funds coming in), how many intermediaries are involved, whether it has gone through cross-chain bridges or aggregators, and finally whether it has entered a known exchange collection address. Many "coincidental transfers" are essentially collection, chain swapping, or market-making fund rebalancing. Looking at it from a different perspective, it's not that mysterious.

My biggest fear isn't losing money, but being led astray by this seemingly certain narrative and rashly adding positions. Anyway, I don't get excited about large transfers for now; I first want to clarify the path. If I can't see it clearly, I just pretend I didn't see it.