Today, while brewing tea and watching the charts, I noticed that a lot of people are once again self-hypnotizing themselves with lines like “stablecoin supply is up = it’s about to pump”... To be frank, the correlation is easy to spot, but don’t rush to assume causality. The money from the ETF side and the over-the-counter side may not immediately turn into buying orders/bids after it comes in—some people just switch lanes and park, or get gradually chewed up by market makers through depth. When the spread tightens, it looks more like “it has become balanced” rather than “it’s taking off.”

And on top of that, ever since the recent cross-chain bridge theft fiasco, many people would rather have their funds sit idle. After that abnormal oracle quote, everyone learned to “wait for confirmation”; moving more slowly is actually pretty normal.

Anyway, I’m more focused on how the depth is being stacked and who’s moving the spread right now—don’t treat a single curve as destiny being arranged for you.