Daily net inflow, why does the price fall?

First, let's state the core conclusion: In the crypto world, "net capital inflow ≠ necessarily rising prices." Seeing continuous days of net inflow, but the coin price keeps falling, is a very common phenomenon. Let's break down several layers of reasons clearly:

1. First, understand: The statistical scope of "net capital inflow" shown by platforms has limitations

The capital flow data in exchange apps mostly only counts the active buy and sell orders on the order book:

- Net inflow = Active buy transaction volume − Active sell transaction volume;
- But it does not include passive order fills, off-exchange transfers, large investors' dark pool sales, contract funds, spot order dumps.

Here's a simple scenario:

1. Large investors place a bunch of low-price sell orders on the order book in advance;
2. Retail investors keep actively buying these sell orders, and the system will interpret this as active buying, showing net inflow;
3. The large investors continuously sell off their holdings to entering retail investors, with the sell orders suppressing the price, causing the coin price to naturally decline.
In plain terms: net inflow is just retail investors taking the dip, while large investors are secretly distributing chips through net inflow.

2. Spot net inflow cannot withstand the massive short selling pressure from the futures market

Futures trading volume far exceeds spot:

1. The chart only shows spot capital flow, not including futures market;
2. Large short positions and liquidations in futures continuously press down the spot price;
3. Even if retail spot investors keep entering, the short sellers' selling pressure can easily drag the price downward.
Many coins show slight net inflow in spot, but futures short positions dominate the trend, causing prices to keep falling.

3. The scale of net inflow continues to shrink, buying power weakens

The trend in the data table is very clear:
Net inflow near $12.93 million on May 23 → then gradually shrinking day by day, down to only $2.09 million on May 31.
Buy-side funds are continuously declining:
Funds that entered early are gradually leaving, subsequent inflows are decreasing, and absorption capacity is weakening;
Even with daily net inflow, the buying momentum is insufficient, and even a small sell order can push the price down, forming a downward trend.

4. Chip structure: Large investors reducing holdings, circulating sell pressure continuously released

1. Address holdings differentiation: Large addresses keep transferring out and selling chips, chips flow from big investors to scattered retail investors; retail holdings are dispersed, lacking collective effort to push prices up, so any selling pressure easily causes declines;
2. Project teams and early investors unlock and sell off, team and institutional unlocks add to selling pressure, creating ongoing selling pressure;
3. Overall market trend drags down, the entire altcoin sector sentiment is low, even if a single coin shows slight net inflow, it’s hard to break out of an independent rally, and most likely follows the overall market downward passively.

5. The most straightforward summary in one sentence

What you see as net inflow is mostly retail investors actively entering to buy the dip;
Behind it are three forces suppressing prices: large investors placing orders to sell, futures short positions pressuring prices, and increasing buying volume becoming weaker;
Net capital inflow is just a single indicator, not a sufficient condition for price increases. It can only serve as an auxiliary reference and should not be used alone to judge rises or falls.