Recently, someone in the group said, "These on-chain transfers are just too coincidental," and I immediately got a headache... As for coincidences, honestly, many are just because the paths aren’t broken down: A first throws the money into an aggregator, the aggregator then distributes it to routing/bridging, and finally it lands in C’s hands. In between, a CEX hot wallet passes through, and the screenshot looks like A directly sent to C. By linking the time, amount ranges, and commonly used contract addresses, most of these can actually be explained clearly. As for the few that can’t be explained, I don’t dare to jump to conclusions; social anxiety makes me just silently note them in my notebook.

By the way, I want to complain that new L1/L2 chains start pulling TVL as soon as incentives begin, and it’s not without reason that veteran users curse "mining, selling, and dumping"... When on-chain paths are complicated, it’s both funny and infuriating to see who’s genuinely using and who’s just faking. Anyway, when I see "coincidence" now, I don’t get excited. First, I draw out the path before saying anything.