Recently, I saw someone interpreting on-chain large transfers and hot/cold wallet movements on exchanges as "smart money"... Honestly, that's more like noise, useful but not worth betting your fate on, at most a probabilistic hint.

I've also struggled with wallet management. Later, I categorized based on "asset size + operation frequency": small amounts (the kind that won't affect your life if lost) use hot wallets, no need to overcomplicate; as the asset size grows and interactions become more frequent, hardware wallets are more suitable, at least to separate signing from computers and phones, reducing the chance of mistakes; further up, especially for long-term dormant assets, I prefer multi-signature. It’s really troublesome, but the risk of single-point failure is also lowered. I think social recovery is suitable for those who are worried about losing seed phrases but don’t want multi-signature, but only if the "guardians" you choose are reliable, or the psychological pressure can be quite high.

Anyway, I now just keep the funds I might use on hardware wallets, and the rest for multi-signature, so a slip-up doesn’t cause the whole stash to be lost.