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Lately I've been looking at various "smart money" tags and address clustering, honestly I only believe half of it... On-chain is indeed transparent, but profiling is too easy to fill in with your own imagination. An address today might be market making, and tomorrow it could just be a script moving bricks; not to mention multi-signature, custody, changing wallets—gathering and dispersing until it finally turns into mysticism. Anyway, I’m now more focused on the rhythm of capital flows: where the exchange, cross-chain, and stablecoin stacks are, at least these don’t look as much like zodiac analysis. The set of on-chain games with inflation + studio involvement, combined with coin price spirals, make addresses look "active," but it’s actually just more noise before a collapse.
What I fear most isn’t missing out on opportunities, but signing off on permissions or upgrades without clearly understanding them.