Key Macro & Event Summary for June (Concise Logic Version)

Overall conclusion: June is packed with negative macro events, liquidity will phaseally contract, and the risk-reward ratio for bullish positions is relatively low. The main approach is to wait and see, confirm on the right side, and avoid aggressive long positions.

1. June 7 OPEC+ Meeting

Core impact on oil prices:

- Production cuts stabilize oil prices → oil prices stay high → US inflation is prone to rebound → pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates → negative for risk assets;
- Increased production and lower prices → oil prices fall back → inflation cools → rate cut expectations recover → positive for the market.

2. June 5 US Non-Farm Payrolls Data

Reflects US labor market health:

- Strong employment exceeding expectations: economic resilience is high, rate cut delayed, negative;
- Employment below expectations: economic slowdown, rate cut expectations rise, positive.

Strategy: Do not pre-commit to data; follow after the data is released.

3. June 10 US CPI Inflation Data

Current April CPI already exceeds expectations, combined with geopolitical disturbances and relatively strong oil prices, making inflation decline in May more difficult:

- CPI remains high: inflation persistence confirmed, further delay in rate cuts, possibly restart rate hike expectations, negative;
- CPI drops significantly: inflation turning point appears, rate cut expectations restore, positive.

4. June 12 SpaceX Mega IPO

Fundraising scale of $750B, one of the largest IPOs in history:

Funds will be diverted from risk assets like tech equities and cryptocurrencies. Referencing the historical sharp decline in BTC after Coinbase’s listing, this is a potential negative for liquidity.

5. June 16–18 Multiple Central Bank Decisions + Fed Rate Meeting

1. Major central banks like UK, Japan, Switzerland announce interest rate decisions, with global monetary policy overall tightening; a single easing is unlikely to offset the downward pressure;
2. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady is close to 97%. Focus on officials’ speeches: new officials tend to be hawkish, and if they signal possible rate hikes within the year, risk assets will be under significant pressure.

6. Hidden Liquidity Negative: US, Canada, Mexico World Cup (June 12–July 20)

During the tournament, market participation declines, trading volume shrinks, liquidity thins, market volatility may amplify, and risk aversion sentiment will be passively elevated.

Overall Trading Strategy

June’s macro environment is characterized by dense negative macro events, capital outflows, and liquidity contraction. The probability and risk-reward of long positions are not favorable. Prioritize light positions and wait for all key events to unfold. After negative factors are fully digested, reassess the opportunity to re-enter. $BTC