Lately, some people have been using the stablecoin supply curve to “prove” that once an ETF arrives, the off-chain money will rush in… I’m a little uneasy watching it. To put it simply, correlation isn’t causation. A lot of the time, it’s just that everyone’s emotions run hot at the same time, or exchanges are doing market-making / cross-chain arbitrage—on-chain numbers only look prettier.

So how should I judge?
I’ll first look at on-chain settlement and exchange net inflows, and also keep an eye on risk events.

Also, the airdrop season now feels like clocking in for work. The task platforms are getting stricter with anti-Sybil/anti-bot measures, and the points system is so cutthroat I can’t even be bothered to open a new account… In any case, I’d rather earn a little less than expose my node machines and main wallets to weird scripts just for a few points. Security is not something to gamble on.