The new Fed Chair just took office, and the market suddenly started to fear! June meeting may not be simple

Kevin Wirth just took over the Federal Reserve, and Wall Street is smelling a familiar scent:
"The hawkish tone."
In the past, Powell often raised interest rates while reassuring the market; Wirth is more like:
"Your tears are useless, if it needs to be raised, it will be raised."
So recently, market expectations for rate hikes have rapidly increased.
Many are puzzled:
The U.S. economy is already slowing down, how can the Fed still be hawkish?
Because inflation is too stubborn.
Now, the most annoying thing about U.S. inflation is:
It’s not surging like during the pandemic, but it also stubbornly refuses to return to 2%.
It's like having the last sliver of health in a game, but can't recover it no matter what.
This makes Wirth especially cautious.
Because the most dangerous thing in history is:
Premature easing.
The U.S. paid the price for this in the 1970s, resulting in repeated inflation explosions.
So I believe that in June:
The most likely scenario is "pause rate hikes + reinforce hawkish expectations."
What does that mean?
Appear to stay unchanged on the surface, but actually continue to scare the market.
Especially emphasizing:
* Rate cuts this year are uncertain
* Data-dependent
* Inflation risks still exist
What will this lead to?
The market will re-enter a "long-term high interest rate" trading.
And this is not good news for risk assets.
Because many assets have already surged too much.
AI concept stocks are like using cheat codes, crypto markets are re-enthusiastic, retail investor sentiment is starting to excite again.
What does the Fed fear most?
It fears the market thinks:
"Interest rate cuts are inevitable, keep pushing!"
So Wirth is likely to use more hawkish language to suppress market expectations.
And what is truly worth being cautious about:
If inflation rebounds again in the future, the Fed might reopen the rate hike window.
At that point, the market will be very uncomfortable.
Because most funds now have already accepted the "rate hike is over."
The cruelest thing in capital markets is:
When everyone believes in the same direction, danger is often approaching. #Polymarket每日热点