Polymarket's 56% probability might be heading to zero, and the Iranian authorities directly denied that the 14-point agreement exists.

Iranian Radio and Television stated that reports by some foreign media about the U.S.-Iran reaching a 14-point understanding memorandum are purely fabricated, and the so-called final draft involving opening the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear negotiations, and unfreezing Iran's frozen assets are all untrue. PolyBeats monitoring shows that the probability of "U.S.-Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement" on Polymarket fluctuated on different dates, with a 26% chance before May 31 and a 56% chance before June 30.