Polymarket’s 1% prediction is mocking who? The strait is clearly allowing normal passage now, but this missile from the U.S. military directly lit the powder keg. I think next month’s 34% will also need to be re-priced.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy issued a statement saying that in the past 24 hours, 26 merchant ships and oil tankers have been authorized and coordinated with the navy to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; other routes that have not been authorized will be considered interference and dealt with. Several ships attempted to disrupt navigation systems and illegally entered the Persian Gulf, two were intercepted and stopped, and the rest turned back. The U.S. military allegedly violated the ceasefire by launching missiles into the airspace of Bandar Abbas Airport, Iran retaliated against the source bases and warned that further actions would be met with severe responses. Control of the Strait of Hormuz is held by the Revolutionary Guard Navy, which will respond decisively to interference. Polymarket predicts the probability of open navigation before the end of this month is less than 1%, rising to 34% by the end of next month.