‍#Polymarket每日热点

Once the US and Iran fire their cannons, cryptocurrencies immediately surge. First, let’s share our view: what price will Ethereum reach in May? I’m betting on 1800. The reasons are as follows:

1. Technically, at present, Bitcoin and Ethereum on the weekly chart have already fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which officially confirms that the bear market is not over yet. There is also a possibility that the weekly chart could complete a five-wave decline with the final wave, and the subsequent move may accelerate downward. On the daily chart, after Ethereum’s price broke below the 60-day moving average, there is currently no protective zone for the bulls below. The current price is gently declining along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, and this noon it has already broken below the 2000-point psychological level. It is expected to accelerate downward further, but since today is Thursday and over the weekend there will be no major news catalyst, liquidity may be insufficient and market fluctuations are not likely to be too large. Therefore, the probability of ETH breaking below 1800 is not high.

2. On the news front, the US and Iran have once again turned hostile. The US military has launched a new round of airstrikes on Iranian military facilities. The White House dismissed the draft negotiation agreement that Iran disclosed as baseless. Oil prices have surged again, which also exerts a negative impact on the coin price. Regarding US-Iran negotiations, we still adhere to our previous view. The current situation is the result of both sides losing, and in the end they will reach a ceasefire agreement. Therefore, the probability of a new large-scale outbreak of conflict—even a land war—is not high, and the price is unlikely to fall below 1800.

3. 1740–1800 is the low point of the prior wave C sell-off, so it should provide some support. It is expected that it will not fall below this level before the end of May. $XPTUSD

In summary, I’m betting that Ethereum’s price will be around 1800 by the end of May. However, considering the possibility that the market will accelerate and break below 1800, my betting strategy is to keep a light position and place small bets. #TradFi交易分享挑战