Recently, I have been paying close attention to the copper market, and I’ve found that there are still many misconceptions about it. Copper is called the "Copper Doctor," and it’s not without reason; 99% of its demand comes from industry, unlike gold, which is mainly a hedge asset. Electric vehicles, AI data centers, green energy grids—these pillars of future economies all rely heavily on copper.

By 2025, copper prices have surged sharply, and they have remained high this year. The latest market shows that LME copper prices fluctuate around $12,500 per ton, over 50% higher than last year's lows. Many people ask me whether this rally can continue or if copper prices will crash like before. My view is that the long-term logic is very clear, but short-term volatility will definitely be intense.

Why are copper prices so resilient? Essentially, it’s an imbalance of supply and demand. On the demand side, global electrification is accelerating; each electric vehicle uses four times more copper than a traditional car, and EV sales are expected to grow 30% in 2025. The power needs of AI data centers are ten times that of ordinary data centers, which means massive copper cooling systems and power distribution facilities are required. Solar and wind power installations are also booming. On the supply side, major copper-producing countries like Chile and Peru face strikes and declining ore grades, while new mines in Congo are delayed. It takes an average of 16.5 years from discovery to production, and current price increases are actually compensating for underinvestment over the past decade.

Institutions are generally optimistic about copper. J.P. Morgan forecasts an average of over $12,500 per ton in 2026, while Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, expecting prices to reach $15,000 within the next 12 months. UBS predicts an average of $12,800 per ton, indicating that the supply gap could expand to over 400k tons. The logic behind these forecasts points in the same direction: green energy transition and AI infrastructure will continue to consume copper.

But I want to remind everyone that the super cycle is not a straight line upward. Even during China’s industrialization cycle from 2000 to 2011, copper prices halved in 2008. Corrections of 20% to 40% are common, especially when macroeconomic changes or short-term inventory releases occur. Federal Reserve interest rate policies, the dollar’s trend, China’s economic stimulus efforts—all these factors influence short-term copper price fluctuations. Tariff expectations also play a role; countries’ traders are frantically adjusting import flows to hedge risks, further amplifying short-term volatility.

As for how to invest in copper, there are several approaches. Copper futures are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with standard contracts of 25,000 pounds, allowing leverage but with high thresholds and delivery obligations, which are not very suitable for beginners. Copper CFDs offer more flexibility, with low margin requirements, no expiration date, and 24-hour trading, allowing both long and short positions. There are also copper-related ETFs and mining company stocks, which are relatively less risky and suitable for long-term investors.

At this point in time, the structural demand logic for copper remains unchanged, but short-term uncertainties are abundant. If you are optimistic about the green energy and AI wave, copper is indeed worth paying attention to. However, you should also be prepared for the risk of a sharp decline in copper prices, which could happen at any time—especially if economic data underperform or geopolitical tensions escalate. The key to investing in copper is maintaining a long-term perspective while managing short-term risks.